This is the text of my keynote speech at the 34th Chaos Communication Congress in Leipzig, December You can also watch it on YouTube, but it runs to about 45 minutes. As a working science fiction novelist, I take a professional interest in how we get predictions about the future wrong, and why, so that I can avoid repeating the same mistakes. Science fiction is written by people embedded within a society with expectations and political assumptions that bias us towards looking at the shiny surface of new technologies rather than asking how human beings will use them, and to taking narratives of progress at face value rather than asking what hidden agenda they serve.
Origins[ edit ] The title is a reference to a fragment attributed to the Ancient Greek poet Archilochus: In Erasmus 's Adagia fromthe expression is recorded as Multa novit vulpes, verum echinus unum magnum.
The fable of The Fox and the Cat embodies the same idea. Berlin expands upon this idea to divide writers and thinkers into two categories: Turning to TolstoyBerlin contends that at first glance, Tolstoy escapes definition into one of the two groups.
He postulates that while Tolstoy's talents are those of a fox, his beliefs are that one ought to be a hedgehog and so Tolstoy's own voluminous assessments of his own work are misleading. Berlin goes on to use this idea of Tolstoy as a basis for an analysis of the theory of history that Tolstoy presents in his novel War and Peace.
In the latter half of the essay, Berlin illuminates Tolstoy by an extended comparison between him and the early 19th-century thinker Joseph de Maistrea comparison that gains in piquancy because while Tolstoy and de Maistre held violently contrasting views on more superficial matters, they held some profoundly similar views about the fundamental nature of existence and the limits of a rational, scientific approach to it.
In the final few paragraphs of the essay, Berlin reasserts his thesis that Tolstoy was by nature a fox but by conviction a hedgehog and goes on to say that the division within himself caused him great pain at the end of his life. The essay has been published separately and as part of the collection Russian Thinkers, edited by Henry Hardy and Aileen Kelly.
The essay also appears in a widely-representative anthology of Berlin's essays, The Proper Study of Mankind. Influence[ edit ] Some authors Michael Walzerfor example have used the same pattern of description for Berlin himself, as a person who knows many things, compared to the purported narrowness of many other contemporary political philosophers.
Berlin's former student, Canadian philosopher Charles Taylorhas been dubbed a hedgehog by Berlin and readily admitted to it in an interview after receiving the Templeton Prize.
Tetlocka political psychology professor at the University of Pennsylvaniadrew heavily on this distinction in his exploration of the accuracy of experts and forecasters in various fields especially politics in his book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?. The historian Joseph Ellisin his Founding Brothers about key figures of the American Revolution, uses Berlin's "Hedgehog and Fox" concept in evaluating George Washingtonnoting that "Washington was an archetypal hedgehog.
And the one big thing he knew was that America's future as a nation lay to the West, in its development over the next century of a continental empire," which was one of the reasons, according to Ellis, of Washington being devoted to construction of canals.
Collins refers to the story in his book Good to Great where he clearly shows his preference towards Hedgehog mentality.
The artist Richard Serra referenced the name in the title of his sculpture installed at Princeton University campus in Music historian Berthold Hoeckner applies and extends Berlin's distinction in his essay "Wagner and the Origin of Evil.
He cites the work of Philip E. Tetlock on the accuracy of political forecasts in the United States during the Cold War while he was a professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley. Silver's news website, fivethirtyeight.
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I remain the official Senior Maverick for Wired, a magazine I helped co-found 25 years ago.
The Hedgehog and the Fox is an essay by philosopher Isaiah Berlin—one of his most popular essays with the general public—which was published as a book in However, Berlin said, "I never meant it very seriously. I meant it as a kind of enjoyable intellectual game, but it was taken seriously. The Hedgehog and the Fox is an essay by philosopher Isaiah Berlin—one of his most popular essays with the general public—which was published as a book in However, Berlin said, "I never meant it very seriously. I meant it as a kind of enjoyable intellectual game, but it was taken seriously. Count is a San Francisco based producer who has been involved in just about every aspect of the music business. He has worked for indie and major labels, scored films, and has worked as producer, engineer, mixer, and remixer for artists such as DJ Shadow, Frank Sinatra, Radiohead, John Cale [Velvet.
I do one article for Wired per year. My most recent published writings are listed here, in chronological order. My newest book, The Inevitable, a New York Times bestseller, is now available in paperback.
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The Cultivated Plant Code notes that the word cultivar is used in two different senses: first, as a "classification category" the cultivar is defined in Article 2 of the International Code of Nomenclature for Cultivated Plants (, 8th edition) as follows: The basic category of cultivated plants whose nomenclature is governed by this Code is the cultivar.
California is the future of the United States, goes the oft-cited cliché. What the US is doing now, Europe will be doing in five years, goes another. Given those truthy maxims, let’s examine. Count is a San Francisco based producer who has been involved in just about every aspect of the music business.
He has worked for indie and major labels, scored films, and has worked as producer, engineer, mixer, and remixer for artists such as DJ Shadow, Frank Sinatra, Radiohead, John Cale [Velvet.